2023 China Smartphone Outlook- Reading Between the Top Lines (Mandarin Edition)

As China is opening its borders and quickly getting back to business after over three years of COVID-19 lockdowns and other curbs, we recently conducted an offline customer-sharing meeting in Shenzhen. It was great to see everyone after a long time and share our insights. The developing trends and China’s premium smartphone market outlook were the most discussed topics.

The country’s smartphone market has become quite saturated. While Chinese OEMs are releasing models with newer technologies, the consumer demand for smartphone upgrades is not as strong as before. Moreover, macroeconomics is another important factor affecting consumers’ purchasing power and confidence. With such a scenario, OEMs are shifting their focus to premium devices to increase their ASPs (average selling prices).

In the latest Mandarin episode of The Counterpoint Podcast, host Rick Cui is joined by Research Analysts Archie Zhang and Shenghao Bai. In this podcast, we touch upon several topics, such as Counterpoint’s prediction for the Chinese smartphone market in 2023, the growing interest of OEMs in releasing foldable smartphones, and more. We also talk about how smartphone makers are focusing on self-developed chips and artificial intelligence (AI) among other areas of differentiation.

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Transcript

播客转录 - 2023 中国智能手机展望——详细解读

Rick 00:10
 Hello大家好。欢迎大家收听counterpoint的第一次中文播客，我是本次播客的主持人Rick。今天我们非常高兴邀请到Counterpoint朋友们，中国团队两位分析师，他们是来自于北京的。

Archie 00:19
 hello大家好，我是counterpoint在北京的分析师，Archie。

Rick 00:22
接下去我们还邀请到来自于我们在深圳的分析师Shenghao，hi Shenghao。

Shenghao 00:25
你好Rick大家好，我是Shenghao。

Rick 00:29
好，欢迎两位分析师，我们上个月在深圳举办了一场线下的客户分享会，在会上我们讨论了许多大家共同关心的话题，我们在现场的反响都非常热烈，我们今天也想借此机会为大家带来中国智能手机的发展趋势，尤其是最近大家热议的关于中国手机厂商积极布局高端手机的情况，我们希望通过播客给大家带来一些思考和启发，也非常欢迎大家留言，分享你们对这个话题的观点。

首先有一个大家都非常感兴趣话题，Counterpoint对于中国智能手机市场未来的预测是怎么样的？我们先有请Archie来分享。

Archie 01:06
谢谢Rick。其实我们counterpoint对于中国手机市场也是一直持续的在关注中，大家也知道在过去的2022年，中国由于受到新冠疫情的影响，整个智能手机的销量还是不太尽如人意的。我们在前几天在深圳的研讨会上，也收到了很多厂商关于问我们这方面的问题。

其实从今年的的销售数据来看，我们其实看到中国智能手机在1月以及2月在中国农历新年期间有一个很快的反弹的过程，这个过程其实也印证了中国整个智能手机销量，其实已经走出了去年12月份疫情影响了阴影。

进入到3月份以来，其实我们看到在主轴的向量有这样一定的下探的一个趋势，但是如果我们关注到同比增长情况，还是在逐步收窄的过程中，由于我们大家知道在去年的4月份开始，全国的很多城市进入了疫情管控的这样一个状态，所以去年Q2整个底部的谷底还是比较深的。

所以综合这几个月的高频数据的情况来看，我们目前预计整个Q1中国智能手机销量还是会维持下跌的态势，但是整个跌幅相较于去年的三季度四季度跌幅还是会有所缩窄的。

整个看全年来看，我们还是维持此前的看法，就是中国智能手机会在今年实现一个微弱的这样的一个正增长，这也是中国智能手机自2016年以来首次取得正增长这么一个成绩。

Rick 02:49
好感谢Archie，我们其实看一下count的数据报告，就会发现2022年中国市场的销量是10年内最低的，我们大家共同关心的问题就是2023年中国的市场总体会好起来吗？主要影响的因素都有哪些？下面我们有请Shenghao为我们分享一下这个主题，好的。

Shenghao 03:08
谢谢Rick.2022年中国智能手机市场销量低迷的原因，我认为有以下几个方面，首先智能手机在中国它是一个竞争异常激烈，并且规模逐步饱和这样的一个市场，新的机型包括新的一些技术一直是在不断涌现，但其实消费者对于自身手机更新换代的需求其实是并不如以往那么强烈了。

还有在2022年疫情的一个背景，对于消费者的购买意愿其实是产生了冲击，最终导致了包括智能手机这样的一个消费品销量是在一个下滑。

还有一点是智能手机的平均售价当前是呈现一个逐步增长这样的趋势，这样的趋势对于一些中低价位的产品这样的消费者来讲，会影响他们的一个消费决策的。

2023年对于影响智能手机的销量，我认为有以下几个因素。首先是宏观层面，国内的经济增长是对于消费者的购买力和信心是有很大的影响的，如果经济增长放缓，消费者的购买意愿和信心都会下降，从而影响到智能手机的一个销量，还有国家的一些政策，其实对于行业创新的一个支持是会影响到厂商以及企业对于新技术新产品的一个投入，进而就是会影响到一个整体的市场规模。

第二点是消费者的需求，其实我们认为智能手机当前的一个更新换代的速度可能会放缓，消费者的需求和购买力其实是推动整体市场的一个发展的核心的因素。消费者的购买决策会受到价格品牌，包括像产品功能服务的这些因素的影响。

其实如果消费者的需求和购买力发生了变化，直接影响到的就是手机市场的一个市场结构和市场规模，我们认为其实影响2023年整体手机行业的因素，还有一个比较重要的点是一个技术创新，也就是说智能手机行业其实是发展是离不开技术创新的，智能手机的功能性能、外观都是需要持续改进的，其实这样才能满足消费者的需求和一个期待。

比如当前我们也看到比如说像折叠屏一些AI的技术，包括资源的芯片的引入，我认为这些是会对智能手机行业整体带来新的机遇的。

还有一点是供应链的一个稳定性，其实供应链是一个智能手机行业的关键关键因素，对于中国来讲它是全球最大的一个智能手机制造国，有非常多重要的供应链的厂商和制造商，如果供应链出现了一些问题，比如比如说像一些原材料的短缺，将会直接影响到整体行业的一个发展和市场表现的。

其实基于以上这些因素以及我们对于当前市场的一个预期，我们预测在2023年整体中国智能手机市场的销量其实是不会有大幅度的反弹的，但是会有一定微幅的一个复苏，我们预计增长率会大概在2%以下。

其实对于具体市场的一个表现，还需要我们进一步的关注和跟踪。

Rick 06:18
谢谢Shenghao分享，我们发现最近几个月各家的主要的手机厂商发布了一些旗舰，平均的售价也屡攀新高，目前我们看到国内智能手机的批发均价已经在390美金左右，我们预测接下来这个均价还可能会继续上涨。

所以我们有个问题要请教一下阿基，那么在目前的市场中，为什么各家的手机品牌都看重高端市场呢？

Archie 06:42
好，谢谢Rick，其实我们可以看到目前这还是各家厂商一个策略选择，这也是在一个下行市场里面一个非常自然的这样的一个策略选择。

在手机换机周期不断增长的背景下，其实有什么办法可以保住未来厂商的销售额？

下降的比例稍微更小一点，其实冲击高端，增加手机智能手机销售均价，其实自然而然是各家厂商可以做的一个这方面的工作，如果我们拉长这个时间点看，在中国其实还是有这么一个消费升级的空间的，在未来我们可以预计可以看到更多的中国高端智能手机在市场里占有更高这样的比例，所以结合当下的这么一个策略，再结合长期的策略，其实冲击高端，提高智能手机销售均价，其实就是成为各家厂商的一个自然而然的选择。

在未来其实智能手机还有很多可以提升的空间，比如说我们可以看到各家厂商都努力的提升自己的影像的水平，同时运用很多的技术提供更多的智能手机这样的一个形态，未来的智慧生活中智能手机还扮演着非常重要的一个作用，看其他的这样的一个可以随身携带的智能可联网的终端产品。

其实我们说实话现在还没有看到有一个新兴的产品可以替代智能手机在我们生活中发生这些作用，所以结合这三点，我个人认为在未来冲击高端，其实是各家必须要做的一个功课。

Rick 08:18
我们都知道国内的高端手机市场的竞争的非常激烈，我们也看到有不少的手机的厂商来积极的发布折叠屏的产品，我们想知道一下是说为什么手机厂商这么热衷于发布折叠屏的手机产品。

Archie 08:32
在目前的这样的一个大背景下，我们可以可以看具体的细分市场数据，在高端这个领域苹果牢牢占据了高端细分市场份额，可能在某些细分市场，比如说在超级高端细分市场，苹果我可能占据了80%以上的市场份额，在这样一个背景下，如果你还跟苹果在同一个直屏赛道里面去跟苹果进行竞争，其实很多厂商来说很难去挑战苹果目前的这样一个霸主的地位。

再回到手机本身这个行业来看，我们大家很多行业里面的玩家都说现在目前只能属于是一个微创新的状态，微创新的状态主要在这么几个维度展开，其中就包括我们可能一会也会谈到，比如说包括算力，比如说包括手机的影像，这两年其实新兴的一个技术就是在屏幕这一块出现了一个折叠屏这样的一个技术，它的普及折叠屏普及其实是在手机微创新大背景下，可能能给用户带来最大差异化体验的这样的一个技术。

我们可以看到长沙现在目前发布了很多小折叠屏产品，其实可以唤起我们对于原来这种用于翻盖手机的体验，同时它又发布了一些大折叠屏产品，比如说我们左右折叠的这样的手机，它可以使你的影音娱乐的这样体验更为沉浸，同时大屏的可以承载更多的显示内容，解锁了包括在使用手机办公上面这方面的想象力。

所以在这样的一个背景下，折叠屏其实也是成为了大家一个自然的选择，用这样的一个技术来冲击高端市场份额。

Rick 10:13
好谢谢，Archie分享我们那么接下来有些数据方面的一些疑问要请Shenghao分享一下，我们想知道是说2022年在全球以及中国市场的折叠屏手机的市场规模到底有多大，对于2023年折叠屏和手机市场又怎么样的一个预测？

Shenghao 10:30
好的，谢谢Rick根据我们对于折叠屏手机市场的一个跟踪，看到2022年中国市场整体的一个规模大概是在290万左右，那么全球整体的市场大概在是超过了1,300万，大概在这样的一个量级，这里面包括上下的小折叠以及左右的大折叠，以及外折对于2023年来讲，2023年的全球折叠屏我们预计会有60%的增长，整体的体量预计会超过2,000万，那么在中国市场上折叠屏手机的我们是预计会有一个翻倍甚至超过翻倍的这样的一个增幅，整体会达到预计会达到700万这样的一个量级，那么我们也是预计在2023年的折叠机的市场，在全球层面会有更多的厂商参与到折叠屏这样的一个细分的领域里面。

那么对于已经推出折叠机的厂商来讲，可能会出现的一个趋势是它会推出更丰富的一个不同尺寸这样的折叠机问世，比如说有的厂商以前只推出过左右的这种书本形式的横着折叠，他今年可能会推出剩下的小折叠，那么有的厂商可能会增大自己的尺寸，厂商也是在拓展自己的产品的品类，在折叠机上也同样是适用的。

Rick 11:43
好，谢谢Shenghao方分享，现在其实我们在大街上和各种交通工具上，地铁上都能看到有人在使用折叠屏产品，但是跟整体的智能手机市场的量相比，折叠屏手机还属于一个小众产品，其实它也面临着一些挑战，能不能请Archie从产品的角度分享一下目前折叠屏手机还有哪些改进的空间。

Archie 12:06
好，其实根据我们counterpoint这边的观察，其实大家对于折叠屏核心的concern有以下这么几个，第一个特别重要的点就是现在折叠屏产品品价格还是比较高的，动辄大折叠产品很多都是在1万以上，虽然有些厂商可能做到了8000块钱左右，但是对于很多消费者的承受能力还是更加高于消费者承受能力的。

另外一方面我们可以看到，其实在另外一个形态上小折叠的折叠屏产品，它价格现在已经比它刚推出的时候已经下降很多，但是它还是属于高端产品序列。其实目前折叠屏产品价格较高的局面，其实也跟新的产品品类，它的目前很多里面的一些零部件，它生产良率还比较低，也是有很多的关系。

其实拿。里面这些零部件举个例子就是铰链，这个铰链其实它本身你看起来很多人拿到教练的拆解的图片，其实也就是很好奇，看到里面不就是螺丝多了一些，整个组成部分也就是一些金属零构件，其实它铰链它精密的加工的结构还是比较复杂的，再加上它组装零器件又比较多，所以它生产良率目前还是比较低的，它的整个组装的成本还是比较高的。

但是随着折叠屏产品普及，我们预计其实铰链的生产的成本在未来也会逐渐的走低，可能也会进而改进帮助折叠屏产品价格向下渗透。

另外一个比较也是大家对于折叠性产品考虑的很多的因素，它目前它重量这个问题其实也跟刚才谈到的教练也是有很多的关系。

我们也看到很多厂商也是努力在更新迭代铰链的设计的结构，使用更多的多种多样的材料，比如说碳纤维的材料来去减轻铰链本身的重量，这个也是可以帮助折叠屏产手机产品减轻自己的重量。

还有一个concern，消费者现在目前我们观察到说的比较多的，目前折叠屏产品的耐用程度，其实很多人购买折叠屏手机之后，不想说我一下摔到地上摔碎了，我可能换一瓶要花三四千块钱，这个也不是消费者希望买到的手机的产品的耐用的程度，这一方面也是厂商需要做的一个很多功课。

最后一点目前折叠屏的应用开发，小折叠屏其实它就是翻盖式的折叠屏，其实现在目前你给它打开的时候，它使用体验还是比较接近，现在我们目前使用的直屏手机，整个应用生态迁移还是比较容易的。

对于大折叠手机就是左右展开的这种书本型的折叠型手机，其实大屏的应用生态的开发还是极有待完善的。

其实我们目前也看到了很多厂商在这方面做了很多功课，比如说有一些厂商在折叠屏里面加入了自由悬停的功能，配合自由潜艇，我们开发了很多很有趣的应用，比如说跟一些视频播放网站的联动，比如说上半部分竖起来是的部分屏幕可以播放视频，那下半部分摆在桌面上的一个部分可以作为操控器使用，比如说针对悬停研发的PPT播播放演示的功能都非常好，得到了消费者非常积极的反馈，但是目前这样的联合开发，其实由于折叠屏目前出货量还是比较少，联合开发对于消费量级还是不太够的，但是随着折叠屏出货量的往上爬升，我们相信应用生态也是会越来越完善的。

Rick 16:04
好，谢谢Archie的分享，虽然我们看到哲理屏目前还有一些有待改进空间，但是我们相信未来折叠屏手机产品一定会做得越来越好，那么我们下一个问题想问一下Shenghao，折叠屏这个新赛道对于未来的智能手机市场会带来什么样的影响？那我们认为未来折叠屏手机会有什么样的一个发展的趋势？

Shenghao 16:26
那么其实我们看一下折叠屏发展的一个历史，从2019年真正诞生第一个折叠屏之后，其实折叠屏走到现在已经是第四年了，那么到目前为止，整体折叠屏的手机在所有的智能手机中，它的一个占占比或者是说渗透率来讲，目前还是整体是比较低的，即便是在刚刚过去的2022年，折叠屏是在过去4年它是获得了一个整体出货量最大的年份，即便是如此，它的渗透率也仅仅是不到2%。

那也就是说明折叠屏在所有的智能手机中，它的占比还是比较小的，我们也是预计未来的折叠屏它的一个增长是会比较明显的，我们也是预计那么在渗透率层面上来讲，也是会逐渐增高的。

那么对于折叠屏的未来有哪些趋势来讲的话，我们认为其实特别是根据我们对于市场的一个跟踪，当前特别是在中国市场上推出大折叠，也就是左右横向大折叠这样的型号是比较多的，相比上下折叠这种小折叠机型是比较多的，我们预计未来的在市场上会有更多的上下小折叠这样的型号出现，小折叠的整体体的占比它也会一有一个提升，我们也是预计未来随着技术的进一步的提升，无论是机械结构层面或者是屏幕显示层面，那么折叠机有可能还会有一些进步的发展，比如说是转变为三折叠或者是卷曲这样的一不同形态的产品。

那么对于产品层面来讲，我们也是预计随着技术的不断成熟，折叠机整体的一个起售的售价会呈现一个下降这样的趋势，那么未来这几年整体的折叠机无论是大折叠还是小折叠，它的一个售价都会有逐渐的一个下探这样的趋势。

那么在产品层面，我认为从去年2022年来看，整体的一个产品层面的趋势是产品更加关注在折叠片以往比较弱的这种轻薄的这种墨齿感，特别是大折叠，那么以往会有给人一种比较厚重的感觉，那么现在我们可以看到市场上已经有推出比一些直板手机还要更轻薄的大折叠的产品，那么同样如刚才rt所说，可靠性也是未来一个提升的趋势，那么以及还有更高的一个IP的防护等级。

同时我们看到特别是在大折叠上，以往我们都认为这样的产品它在影像的功能上可能是不太注重的，那么当前可以看到的一些情况是未来会在大折叠的影像功能上会有一些提升，这也是未来的一个发展的趋势。

Rick 19:01
好，谢谢Shenghao。折叠屏手机这个话题实在太火了，但是因为时间有限，我们折叠屏这个话题先谈到这里，接下来我们看看整体旗舰手机的情况，我们下一个问题还是请申花帮我们解答一下，我们发现最近上市了一些旗舰的手机，能不能分享一下有哪些技术上的创新？

比如说我们都知道影像是不可或缺的一个亮点，几乎每个旗舰手机都要讲影像，除了影像之外，是否还有其他能够打造产品差异化的领域？

Shenghao 19:35
好的，我们可以看到最近上市的期间，手机中影像确实是一个大家还是继续共参共同在推动并且探讨的热点的话题。我认为即便有特别是当前的安卓厂商，在影像相关的硬件层面已经是给到消费者非常好的一个选择了，整体安卓拍照的表现力也是非常好的，我觉得厂商未来可以在更充分的利用自己当前硬件，这些摄像头包括旗舰的一些芯片，那么在视频拍摄的领域也有进一步这样的一个深耕。

那么同时我看到其实显示技术也是一直在更新迭代的，我们看到消费者在使用更好的拍到更好的照片和视频之后，那么如果有更好的显示技术，那么会给消费者带来更好的一个影音的交互的体验。

那么影音体验当前我们看到像苹果以及国产的安卓厂商都有local、HDR这样的技术，那么视频领域也推出了对于杜比音效的一个兼容，这都是一些当下的创新点。那么我们同时也看到包括像谷歌 dobby这样的大公司，他们已经开始着手制定统一的一个HDR的照片的这样的一个格式，目的是未来可以让所有的设备都可以显示这种logo h点的照片，这样我对于影音技术的一个普及是非常有好处的。

那么在软件生态层面，我认为在多设备的互联，包括一些健康监测的领域都是会有创新的，那么我们也同时看到在资源芯片各个厂家都在发力的一个点，那么其实我认为最终还是要落实到对于消费者的体验进行一个提升，以及最近其实还有一点就是AI技术整体在智能手机层面上的一个应用也是非常的热，厂商可能会未来会通过和类似像Chatgpt这样的相关的应用的一个合作，提高用户的一些体验。

我认为同时在提升用户体验的时候，对于用户的一个隐私的保护也是非常重要的，这也是一个创新点，也是未来可以做出差异的地方。

Rick 21:41
好，谢谢Shenghao的分享，我们想请教一下就是说我们看到目前很多手机品牌做在做高端旗舰机，那么能不能分享一下这些品牌都重点压住在哪几个研发的方向？

Archie 21:54
其实就像Shenghao刚才讲的，其实目前现在几个大的前进的方向，大家其实都有多多少少的布局，比如说在计算影像方面，比如说在自研芯片方面，这几个方面Shenghao刚才已经讲过了，我就不在这方面展开了，其实我这边有一个觉得非常可能是未来一个发展的方向，就是我们对于AI的应用。

现在最近 AI话题非常的火，其实对于智能手机来讲，AI其实从来没有缺席，大家也对AI并不陌生，比如说刚才我们讲到计算摄影这方面，其实里面就用了很多 AI方面的一些技术，对图片进行多镜头影像融合这样算法的这样的一个技术，去生成帮助用户只点击一下生成更漂亮的照片。

其实在未来我们可以看到AI的兴起，比如说我们现在很多听众朋友可能都已经用过了Chatgpt，才可以帮助我们极大的提升我们办公这方面效率。

在未来其实我个人认为在手机侧运行 AI大模型，其实是未来一个非常重要的趋势，我们也看到有一些手机厂商也提前开始了一些在AI方面的一些布局，开始跟有关的公司开展了一些合作。

其实在未来我们可以看到可以想象到，对于目前 AI它很多东西都是开源的，其实对于数据隐私，对于安全方面的这些考虑，其实是对于用户使用者来说是相对黑箱的。其实在未来这方面我们会不会有比如说全端测的 AI这样的模型的这么一个需求？

其实我们也看到在刚刚结束的巴塞罗那通讯展上面，高通其实就已经发布了它这样这方面的一个解决方案，其实它推出的这样的一个全站优化技术，可以使AI在安卓手机上完全端侧运行。

其实大家可以关注一下我们Counterpoint Research在这方面的一个报告，这是一点。其实也相当于是给大家开一个脑洞。

另外一点其实还有一个特别重要，对于高端是一个非常重要的方面，就是一个品牌的价值。很多其实用户在购买高端智能手机的时候，他祈求的是高端智能手机壳，可以帮助是一个对个人形象的展示，其实相当于也是满足用户自身的情绪价值，这个品牌软实力的建设也不是很快就能完成的，需要品牌商就得稳工来做很多这方面的努力。

Rick 24:36
好谢谢分享。今天我们请两位分析师从多个方面分享了中国智能手机市场的走势，尤其我们今天比较大的篇幅重点介绍了各家品牌厂商在高端市场，尤其在折叠机市场的一些布局跟举措，希望对大家的工作有一些帮助跟启发。当然我们还有很多想要分享的内容，如果各位想了解更多的内容，也可以访问我们的官网，或者关注我们的微信公众号Counterpoint Research。如果各位对我们数据和服务有任何疑问，也欢迎随时联系我们。今天非常感谢大家的收听，也感谢两个分析师，Archie Shenghao我们下次再见。

Rick 00:00

Hello everyone. Welcome everyone to listen to counterpoint's first Chinese podcast. I am the host of this podcast, Rick. Today we are very happy to invite friends from Counterpoint, two analysts from the Chinese team, they are from Beijing.

Archie 00:13

  hello everyone, I am Archie, an analyst at counterpoint in Beijing.

Rick 00:17

Next, we also invited Shenghao, hi Shenghao, our analyst in Shenzhen.

Shenghao 00:22

Hello Rick Hello everyone, I'm Shenghao.

Rick 00:25

Well, welcome to the two analysts. We held an offline customer sharing meeting in Shenzhen last month. At the meeting, we discussed many topics of common concern. I would like to take this opportunity to bring you the development trend of Chinese smartphones, especially the recent heated discussion about the active layout of high-end mobile phones by Chinese mobile phone manufacturers. We hope to bring you some thoughts and inspirations through podcasts, and welcome everyone Leave a comment and share your views on this topic.

First of all, there is a topic that everyone is very interested in. What is Counterpoint's prediction for the future of the Chinese smartphone market? We first asked Archie to share.

Archie 01:06

Thanks Rick. In fact, our counterpoint has been paying attention to the Chinese mobile phone market. Everyone knows that in the past 2022, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic in China, the sales of smartphones as a whole were still not satisfactory. At the seminar in Shenzhen a few days ago, we also received many manufacturers asking us questions in this regard.

In fact, judging from this year's sales data, we actually saw that Chinese smartphones had a rapid rebound process in January and February during the Chinese New Year. This process actually confirmed the overall sales of smartphones in China. In fact, It has already stepped out of the shadow of the impact of the epidemic in December last year.

Since entering March, we have actually seen a certain downward trend in the vector of the main axis, but if we pay attention to the year-on-year growth, it is still in the process of gradually narrowing. Since the beginning of the month, many cities across the country have entered such a state of epidemic control, so the bottom of the entire bottom of Q2 last year was relatively deep.

Therefore, based on the high-frequency data in the past few months, we currently expect that the overall Q1 smartphone sales in China will continue to decline, but the overall decline will still narrow compared to the decline in the third and fourth quarters of last year. of.

Looking at the whole year, we still maintain our previous view that Chinese smartphones will achieve a weak positive growth this year. This is the first time that Chinese smartphones have achieved positive growth since 2016.

Rick 02:49

Thanks Archie, we actually look at the data report of count, and we will find that the sales volume of the Chinese market in 2022 will be the lowest in 10 years. The question we all care about is whether the overall Chinese market will improve in 2023? What are the main influencing factors? Next, we ask Shenghao to share this topic for us, okay.

Shenghao 03:08

Thank you Rick. The reasons for the sluggish sales of China’s smartphone market in 2022, I think, are the following aspects. First of all, smartphones in China are an extremely competitive market, and the scale is gradually saturated. New models include new ones. Some technologies have been emerging, but in fact, consumers' demand for upgrading their mobile phones is not as strong as before.

There is also a background of the epidemic in 2022, which actually had an impact on consumers' willingness to buy, which eventually led to a decline in the sales of consumer goods such as smartphones.

Another point is that the average selling price of smartphones is currently showing a trend of gradual increase. This trend will affect a consumer decision for some low- and mid-priced products.

In 2023, I think there are several factors that will affect the sales of smartphones. First of all, at the macro level, domestic economic growth has a great impact on consumers' purchasing power and confidence. If economic growth slows down, consumers' willingness to buy and confidence will decline, which will affect the sales of smartphones. There are also some national policies. In fact, the support for industry innovation will affect the investment of manufacturers and enterprises in new technologies and new products, and in turn will affect the overall market size.

The second point is consumer demand. In fact, we believe that the current update speed of smartphones may slow down. Consumer demand and purchasing power are actually the core factors that promote the development of the overall market. Consumers' purchasing decisions are influenced by price and brand, including factors such as product features and services.

In fact, if consumer demand and purchasing power change, it will directly affect the market structure and market size of the mobile phone market. We believe that another important factor that will affect the overall mobile phone industry in 2023 is technological innovation. That is to say, the development of the smartphone industry is inseparable from technological innovation. The functional performance and appearance of smartphones need continuous improvement. In fact, only in this way can consumers' needs and expectations be met.

For example, we have also seen some AI technologies such as folding screens, including the introduction of resource chips. I think these will bring new opportunities to the smartphone industry as a whole.

Another point is the stability of the supply chain. In fact, the supply chain is a key factor in the smartphone industry. For China, it is the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world, and there are many important supply chain manufacturers and manufacturers. For suppliers, if there are some problems in the supply chain, such as the shortage of some raw materials, it will directly affect the development and market performance of the overall industry.

In fact, based on the above factors and our expectations for the current market, we predict that in 2023, the sales volume of the overall Chinese smartphone market will not rebound significantly, but there will be a slight recovery. We expect growth rate will be less than 2%.

In fact, we need further attention and follow-up on the performance of a specific market.

Rick 06:18

Thank you Shenghao for sharing. We have found that major mobile phone manufacturers have released some flagships in recent months, and the average selling price has also reached new highs. At present, we see that the average wholesale price of domestic smartphones is around US$390. We predict This average price may continue to rise in the future.

So we have a question to ask Aji, so in the current market, why do all mobile phone brands value the high-end market?

Archie 06:42

Okay, thank you Rick. In fact, we can see that this is still a strategic choice of various manufacturers. This is also a very natural strategic choice in a down market.

In the context of the ever-increasing mobile phone replacement cycle, is there any way to preserve the sales of future manufacturers?

The proportion of decline is slightly smaller. In fact, impacting high-end and increasing the average sales price of mobile phones and smartphones is actually a work that various manufacturers can do. If we look at this time point, there are still such things in China. A space for consumption upgrades. In the future, we can expect to see more Chinese high-end smartphones occupying a higher proportion in the market. Therefore, combining the current strategy with the long-term strategy, it will actually hit the high-end. Raising the average sales price of smartphones is actually a natural choice for various manufacturers.

In the future, smart phones still have a lot of room for improvement. For example, we can see that various manufacturers are working hard to improve their image quality, and at the same time use a lot of technologies to provide more smart phones. In the future, Smartphones also play a very important role in smart life. Look at other such smart and networked terminal products that can be carried around.

In fact, to be honest, we haven’t seen an emerging product that can replace smartphones to play these roles in our lives. Therefore, combining these three points, I personally think that hitting high-end in the future is actually a homework that everyone must do. .

Rick 08:18

We all know that the competition in the domestic high-end mobile phone market is very fierce. We have also seen that many mobile phone manufacturers are actively releasing folding screen products. We want to know why mobile phone manufacturers are so keen on releasing folding screen products. mobile phone products.

Archie 08:32

Under the current background, we can look at the specific market segment data. In the high-end field, Apple has firmly occupied the high-end segment market share. In terms of market, Apple may occupy more than 80% of the market share. Under such a background, if you still compete with Apple in the same direct screen track as Apple, it is actually very difficult for many manufacturers to challenge Apple. Such a dominant position at present.

Looking back at the mobile phone industry itself, many of us players in the industry say that now we can only belong to a state of micro-innovation, and the state of micro-innovation is mainly developed in these dimensions, including our possible I will talk about it later, for example, including computing power, for example, including mobile phone images. In the past two years, a technology that has emerged in the past two years is a technology such as a folding screen that has appeared on the screen. The popularity of folding screens is actually a In the context of mobile phone micro-innovation, such a technology may be able to bring users the most differentiated experience.

We can see that Changsha has now released a lot of small folding screen products, which can actually evoke our experience of the original clamshell mobile phone. At the same time, it has released some large folding screen products, such as the mobile phone that we fold left and right. , it can make your audio-visual entertainment experience more immersive, and at the same time, the large screen can carry more display content, unlocking the imagination including using mobile phones for office work.

Therefore, under such a background, folding screens have actually become a natural choice for everyone, using such a technology to impact high-end market share.

Rick 10:13

Thank you, Archie, for sharing with us. Next, I would like to ask Shenghao to share some questions about the data. We want to know how big the market size of folding screen mobile phones will be in the global and Chinese markets in 2022. For 2023, folding screen and What about a forecast for the mobile phone market?

Shenghao 10:30

Okay, thank you Rick. Based on our tracking of the folding screen mobile phone market, we can see that the overall size of the Chinese market in 2022 will be around 2.9 million, and the global overall market will probably exceed 13 million. An order of magnitude, which includes small up and down folds, large left and right folds, and outer folds. For 2023, we expect the global folding screens to grow by 60% in 2023, and the overall volume is expected to exceed 20 million. Well, in the Chinese market, we expect that the number of folding screen mobile phones will double or even exceed double, and the overall will reach an order of magnitude that is expected to reach 7 million. In the mobile phone market, more manufacturers will participate in a subdivided field such as folding screens at the global level.

Well, for manufacturers that have launched folding machines, there may be a trend that they will launch more abundant folding machines of different sizes. For example, some manufacturers have only launched horizontal books in the form of left and right before. For folding, he may launch the remaining small folding machines this year, so some manufacturers may increase their size, and manufacturers are also expanding their product categories, which are also applicable to folding machines.

Rick 11:43

Okay, thank you Shenghao for sharing. Now we can actually see people using folding screen products on the street, on various means of transportation, and on the subway. However, compared with the overall smartphone market volume, folding screen phones still belong to It is a niche product, but it also faces some challenges. Could you ask Archie to share some room for improvement of the current folding screen mobile phone from the perspective of the product.

Archie 12:06

Well, in fact, according to our counterpoint observations, in fact, everyone has the following concerns about the core of folding screens. The first particularly important point is that the price of folding screen products is still relatively high, and many large folding screen products are often expensive. It is more than 10,000 yuan. Although some manufacturers may achieve around 8,000 yuan, the affordability of many consumers is still higher than that of consumers.

On the other hand, we can see that, in fact, in another form of small folding folding screen products, its price has dropped a lot compared to when it was first launched, but it still belongs to the high-end product series. In fact, the current high price of folding screen products has a lot to do with the low production yield of some components in the new product category.

Actually take it. An example of these parts inside is the hinge. In fact, the hinge itself looks like a lot of people got the dismantling pictures of the coach. In fact, they are very curious. If you see that there are more screws inside, the whole component is just Some metal parts, in fact, its hinge and its precise processing structure are still relatively complicated, and there are more components assembled, so its production yield is still relatively low at present, and its overall assembly cost is still relatively high of.

However, with the popularization of folding screen products, we expect that the production cost of hinges will gradually decrease in the future, which may be further improved to help the price of folding screen products penetrate downward.

Another comparison is also a factor that everyone considers a lot about foldable products. The current weight issue actually has a lot to do with the coach mentioned just now.

We have also seen that many manufacturers are also working hard to update the design structure of the iterative hinge, using more diverse materials, such as carbon fiber materials, to reduce the weight of the hinge itself, which can also help foldable screen mobile phone products to reduce weight. own weight.

There is another concern. Consumers are now observing that they are talking a lot about the durability of folding screen products. In fact, after many people buy folding screen mobile phones, they don’t want to say that I fell to the ground and broke. I might change it. The bottle costs three to four thousand yuan, which is not the degree of durability of the mobile phone products that consumers want to buy. This is also a lot of homework that manufacturers need to do.

The last point is the current application development of folding screens. The small folding screen is actually a clamshell folding screen. In fact, when you open it now, its user experience is still relatively close. Now we are currently using straight-screen mobile phones. The entire application ecosystem Migration is relatively easy.

For large folding mobile phones, which are book-type folding mobile phones that unfold left and right, in fact, the development of the application ecology of large screens still needs to be perfected.

In fact, we have also seen that many manufacturers have done a lot of homework in this area. For example, some manufacturers have added the function of free hovering to the folding screen. With the free submarine, we have developed many very interesting applications. For example, with some The linkage of the video playback website, for example, the part of the screen where the upper part is erected can play videos, and the part of the lower part placed on the desktop can be used as a controller, for example, the PPT playback demonstration developed for hovering The functions are very good and have received very positive feedback from consumers, but the current joint development, in fact, because the current shipments of folding screens are still relatively small, joint development is not enough for the consumption level, but with the folding screen With the increase in shipments, we believe that the application ecology will become more and more perfect.

Rick 16:04

Okay, thank you Archie for sharing. Although we see that there is still room for improvement in the philosophy screen, we believe that folding screen mobile phone products will definitely get better and better in the future. Then our next question would like to ask Shenghao, folding screen What impact will this new track have on the future smartphone market? Then what kind of development trend do we think the folding screen mobile phone will have in the future?

Shenghao 16:26

Well, in fact, let’s take a look at the history of the development of folding screens. Since the first folding screen was born in 2019, it has actually been the fourth year since the folding screen. In terms of the proportion or penetration rate of smartphones, it is still relatively low as a whole. Even in the past 2022, folding screens have achieved an overall shipment in the past 4 years. Even so, its penetration rate is only less than 2%.

That is to say, the proportion of folding screens in all smartphones is still relatively small. We also expect that the growth of folding screens in the future will be more obvious. We also predict that in terms of penetration rate, It will also increase gradually.

As for the future trends of folding screens, we think that, especially based on our tracking of the market, there are currently more models with large folding screens, that is, large horizontal folding screens on the left and right sides, especially in the Chinese market. , Compared with the small folding models that fold up and down, there are more small folding models. We expect that there will be more models such as small folding up and down in the market in the future, and the overall proportion of small folding will be one Improvement, we also expect that with the further improvement of technology in the future, whether it is the mechanical structure level or the screen display level, then the folding machine may have some progressive development, such as changing to a three-folding or curling. A product in a different form.

As far as the product level is concerned, we also expect that with the continuous maturity of technology, the overall starting price of folding machines will show a downward trend. Then in the next few years, the overall folding machines, whether large or small Folding, its selling price will have a trend of gradually dropping.

Then at the product level, I think from the perspective of last year in 2022, the overall trend at the product level is that products pay more attention to the light and thin texture of the folding sheet, which was relatively weak in the past, especially the large folding sheet, so in the past there will be It gives people a relatively heavy feeling, so now we can see that there are large foldable products that are lighter and thinner than some candy bar phones on the market, and as rt said just now, reliability is also a trend of improvement in the future , Then there is a higher IP protection level.

At the same time, we have seen that especially in the large folding, we used to think that such products may not pay much attention to the imaging function, so what we can see now is that in the future, the imaging function of the large folding will be improved. There are some improvements, and this is also a development trend in the future.

Rick 19:01

OK, thank you Shenghao. The topic of folding screen mobile phones is really hot, but because of the limited time, we will talk about the topic of folding screens here first, and then we will look at the overall situation of flagship mobile phones. Our next question is to ask Shenhua to help us answer it. We found that Some flagship mobile phones have been launched recently, can you share some technical innovations?

For example, we all know that imaging is an indispensable highlight. Almost every flagship mobile phone needs to talk about imaging. Apart from imaging, are there other areas that can create product differentiation?

Shenghao 19:35

Well, we can see that during the recent listing period, the image in the mobile phone is indeed a hot topic that everyone continues to participate in and jointly promote and discuss. I think that even the current Android manufacturers, especially the current Android manufacturers, have given consumers a very good choice in terms of image-related hardware. The overall performance of Android photography is also very good. Using our own current hardware, these cameras include some chips of the flagship, so we have further deepened our cultivation in the field of video shooting.

Well, at the same time, I see that the display technology is always being updated and iterated. We see that after consumers take better photos and videos with better devices, if there is a better display technology, it will bring consumers Come to a better audio-visual interactive experience.

As for the audio-visual experience, we currently see that Apple and domestic Android manufacturers have technologies such as local and HDR, and the video field has also launched a compatibility with Dolby audio effects. These are some current innovations. Well, we have also seen that big companies such as Google dobby have begun to develop a unified format for HDR photos, so that all devices can display photos of this logo h point in the future. , so I am very beneficial to the popularization of audio-visual technology.

Then at the level of software ecology, I think there will be innovations in the interconnection of multiple devices, including some fields of health monitoring. Then we also see a point where resource chip manufacturers are making efforts. In fact, I think In the end, it still needs to be implemented to improve the experience of consumers, and recently there is another point that the overall application of AI technology at the smartphone level is also very hot. Manufacturers may pass related applications like Chatgpt in the future. A cooperation with other applications to improve some user experience.

I think that while improving the user experience, it is also very important to protect the user's privacy. This is also an innovation point, and it is also a place where we can make a difference in the future.

Rick 21:41

Okay, thank you Shenghao for sharing, we would like to ask you that we see that many mobile phone brands are currently making high-end flagship phones, so can you share which research and development directions these brands are focusing on?

Archie 21:54

In fact, just like what Shenghao said just now, in fact, everyone has more or less plans for several major directions of progress. For example, in terms of computing and imaging, for example, in terms of self-developed chips, these aspects Shenghao just now As I have already said, I will not expand on this aspect. In fact, one of my side thinks that it is very likely to be a future development direction, which is our application of AI.

Now the topic of AI is very hot recently. In fact, for smartphones, AI has never been absent, and everyone is no stranger to AI. For example, when we talked about computational photography just now, in fact, a lot of AI aspects are used in it. Technology, such a technology of multi-lens image fusion algorithm for pictures, to generate and help users generate more beautiful photos with just one click.

In fact, we can see the rise of AI in the future. For example, many of our listeners and friends may have already used Chatgpt, which can help us greatly improve our office efficiency.

In fact, in the future, I personally think that running AI large models on the mobile phone side is actually a very important trend in the future. We have also seen that some mobile phone manufacturers have also started some layouts in AI in advance, and have begun to develop with related companies. some cooperation.

In fact, in the future, we can see and imagine that for the current AI, many things are open source. In fact, for data privacy and security considerations, these considerations are actually relatively black boxes for users. In fact, in the future, will we have such a demand for models such as AI for full-end testing?

In fact, we also saw that at the just-concluded Barcelona Communication Exhibition, Qualcomm has actually released a solution in this regard. In fact, it has launched such a total-site optimization technology that can make AI fully integrated on Android phones. run sideways.

In fact, you can pay attention to a report of our Counterpoint Research in this regard, this is one point. In fact, it is equivalent to opening a brain hole for everyone.

Another point is actually very important, and it is a very important aspect for high-end, that is, the value of a brand. In fact, when many users buy high-end smartphones, what they pray for is a high-end smartphone case, which can help to display their personal image. In fact, it is equivalent to satisfying the emotional value of users themselves. The construction of the soft power of this brand is not very good. It can be completed soon, and brand owners have to work hard to make a lot of efforts in this area.

Rick 24:36

Ok thanks for sharing. Today we invited two analysts to share the trend of China's smartphone market from various aspects. In particular, our relatively large space today focuses on the layout and measures of various brand manufacturers in the high-end market, especially in the folding machine market. Hope There is some help and inspiration for everyone's work. Of course, we still have a lot of content to share. If you want to know more, you can also visit our official website, or follow our WeChat official account Counterpoint Research. If you have any questions about our data and services, please feel free to contact us. Thank you very much for listening today, and thank you to the two analysts, Archie Shenghao. See you next time.